Tiered pricing and the rise of "proxynets"

This article over at Seeking Alpha is interesting. In it, Shelly Palmer argues that:

people with more money than time pay and people with more time than money steal. Piracy will run rampant, but it will be very easy to thwart because most of the consumption devices will require monthly data plans. If a device is connected to a network and the network operator has your credit card number or billing address, you will have a hard time using it to steal content.

The arms race will continue until the rigidity of the content provider pricing and network service provider greed overwhelm consumers or until a new technology evolves.

The new technology is what he calls "ProxyNets". In this scenario, the WiFi radios on smart phones will be used in the "ad hoc mode" instead of the "infrastructure mode" and will rely on mesh networking for interconnection. If the device density is sufficiently high (that is, the probability of participating radios being in range is high enough) then it will be possible to construct an informal network at low cost outside of a formal carrier relationship. You can even imagine jumping onto the Internet for some links (via an access point) if the density is not sufficiently high. The fact that such a network might exist outside of the control of a carrier, even if the quality is low, might be a "good enough" technology that could be the start of a classic "disruptive technology".

The argument is interesting and even somewhat plausible, especially since almost all smartphones now have wifi. In my international travels, I always jump onto a wifi network with my phone for data connections, since the carrier-based rates are punishingly high.

Comcast and the "new" open cable platform

Earlier this week, I wrote about cable's "Tru2way" announcement. So, here is a bit more on this.

Continuing on the theme I began developing late last year, this announcement suggests that cable TV operators are beginning to dis-integrate their networks, separating services from platform. So, will CATV move to an "open" (wholesale) platform on which multiple "retail" services will be provided from multiple providers? Is this another instance of "functional/structural separation"?

Miscellaneous topics ...

I had a few items that I wanted to blog about over the past couple of weeks. So, in an effort to clear out my backlog, let me summarize them here.

• The US GAO published this report, which is fairly critical of the US FCC and other agencies with regard to the upcoming conversion to digital television. The "switch off" is just over one year away, and consumer education has been basically non-existent.
  

  Update (2008-01-03): The FCC published their Third Periodic Review of the digital TV transition. No mention of the GAO report that I could find ...



• On a similar note, the UK regulator Ofcom issued this report that examines alternatives for using the "digital dividend", which arises from the sale of the spectrum formerly used by analog television.


• Changing gears a bit ... this article in BusinessWeek gives hope to the fans of Municipal Wireless. The Spanish WiFi operator FON seems poised to enter the void that Earthlink is leaving after it reevaluated its participation in this market. They have a different business model. Will they find more success?


• There are a couple of interesting items on the international front.
  
  
  
  • Take a look at this (from Swivel, one of my favorite sites), which shows the dominance of prepaid wireless in China's market.
  
  
  • Gordon Cook unearthed a fascinating, detailed report on providing wireless to Nepal. See Gordon's post here. I have been unable to locate it on the World Bank's website.
  
  
  • In this article, the possibility of a "natural limit" to Kenya's mobile market is raised. I am always suspicious of these kinds of projections, because they normally assume that the future will be driven by forces similar to those driving the markets today. History has shown us the disruptive power of wireless technology, after all ...
  
  
• Speaking of natural limits, I have been interested in the pending conversion to IPv6, which has been prophesized for several years already but which has not yet happened. This article over at CircleID provides more grist for this mill. Is it different this time, or should we expect more of the same?

Happy New Year, dear readers!

Adblock and Alternative Business Model

There have been a number of posts recently like this one relevant to the subject of micropayments and Adblock. Many of the websites depending on advertising to keep it alive are suffred from the use of Adblocks, extention for Firefox. This article presented some Alternative Online Business Models. Even though all of these models are nice complements to advertising but there are no standalone business models for anyone trying to generate serious revenue online.

Couple months ago, Joe, co-founder of Rouxbe, came up with a very interesting variation on the alternative sponsorship model. Getting advertisements you like to see!!! Take a look at this brilliant model and let's discuss about it.