Standards rivalries

I have been interested in standards rivalries for a long time, so this article over at Ars Technica caught my attention (see this search on HD-DVD vs Blu Ray, for example). There are more nuanced analyses of both the Betamax vs. VHS and HD-DVD vs. Blu Ray rivalries, but I think the most interesting contribution of the Ars Technica article is the prediction of a shift from hardware rivalries to content distribution rivalries as we move from hardware to software. I think they have an interesting point, one that the economic literature on standards has not addressed explicitly (to my knowledge).

Market tipping in high definition DVDs

This article over at CNET shows just how quickly market tipping can occur in a standards rivalry. As I blogged earlier, Warner's announcement to back Blu-Ray was (apparently) the defining moment. In response, Toshiba has cut the prices of stand-alone HD-DVD players; this weekend's advertisement at Best Buy was offering a "buy one, get one free" special on HD-DVD movies. This is either an inventory clearance effort or it is an attempt to change the market dynamics. I suspect the former is true.

Game Over: Blu-Ray seems to have won

This story over at TechCrunch points to the end of HD-DVD in the format wars. From the point of view of standards rivalry, what event(s) "tipped" the scales in favor of Blu-Ray? Warner's decision was clearly the precipitating event, but what was it that caused Warner to make this decision? Technical features of Blu-Ray? Sponsorship (via side payments)?

According to this article over at Forbes, the content industry is more interested in a standard, regardless of which. Their concern is the market for digital media.

I think the speculation that this may be hollow victory is more interesting ... quoting the Forbes article:

But Sony can't afford to spend too long drinking the champagne. The real news isn't that HD-DVD's future looks grim. It's that if Blu-Ray's backers can finish off HD-DVD quickly, Blu-Ray might have one.

With Apple, Amazon.com, NetFlix and Microsoft pushing downloadable movies and cable and phone companies peddling a plethora of on-demand, high-definition content, the day is coming when the stacks of plain vanilla DVDs that clutter many home entertainment centers will go the way of the CD collection.

JVC even introduced a flat-screen television at the International Consumer Electronics Show that allows users to simply pop in one of Apple's iPods to watch video content--threatening to turn the slim media players into an alternative to digital video discs. And Panasonic is building iPod docks into its home theater systems alongside an integrated Blu-Ray player.

Another worry, according to Robin Harris, an analyst with the Data Mobility Group, is that Blu-Ray adoption will be slow because few people will notice the difference between formats, since many players can neatly "up-convert" DVDs for high-definition sets. As a result, few will opt to replace their entire DVD libraries, as many did with the earlier generation of videotapes. "So is this going to be a pyrrhic victory for Sony? I think that there's a fair chance that it will be," Harris says.

HD-DVD vs BluRay (again)

So I can't keep my fingers out of this one, OK? There were two articles, both from Gizmodo, that I found interesting and relevant. The first is this one, which reports that the Toshiba HD-DVD player that has been selling for US$ 99 costs approximately US$674 to build. This is a classic "technology sponsorship" move, even if it is driven by retailers at this point. How long is this sustainable?

What is reported in this item is more subtle and is predictable when you have broad cartels consortia. Will Blu-Ray end up "losing" because of what amounts to unfinished standards?

Next Gen DVD format wars again

I keep coming back to this topic ... there were a couple of announcements recently that provided contradictory signals.

1. According to this, Blu-Ray disks outsold HD-DVD disks in the first nine months of the year in the US. This suggests momentum for Blu-Ray
   
2. According to this item, Samsung has abandoned its next generation Blu-Ray DVD player for one that plays both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray. This suggests that Samsung, a major backer of Blu-Ray, is not confident that Blu-Ray will win.
   

Do you think either of these facts are indicative of future outcomes? If so, which do you think is more meaningful?

Matters in DVD war and the China

It will take more time to see who will come out the winner. From the data so far, Blu-ray seems to be winning for outsold titles and their supporters. If someone asked me about the winner of DVD wars in this moment, I would say Blu-ray which has more spec, security and supporters matters.

See this chart I made for "matters in DVD battles" blow.


However, the most important thing to watch out is the China’s movement. China is probably going to develop better DVD format with lower price and more spec. Even though they don't have any supporters right now, I believe many things will be changed with China's new format. Let us take a careful look for another DVD war.

Those technologies are young and immature, and have room to improve so we have got to watch and wait for their competition with market dynamics. For the argument of Blu-ray and HD-DVD debate, see this blog. I'll keep spy on the China's wind.

Blu-ray recorders

This story is an interesting development in the ongoing format war. The price is steep, up to US$1752 (compared with US$199 for an upcoming HD DVD player).

How much would a 50 Gbyte hard drive cost? Are these storage media substitutable? Assuming that digital rights management (DRM) issues can be resolved, do you think that this feature will make a difference in this war? Has the market moved away from the need for high capacity, portable storage like this?

On this topic, China has announced a third format, as reported by Ars Technica. Do you think this will have an impact on the ongoing format war?

DVD Wars again

The next generation DVD format war has been a persistent theme on this blog, given my longstanding interest in standards processes. This format war is far from over, though this story has given the HD-DVD camp renewed momentum.

Given that the penetration of HD television sets is still relatively small (and the penetration of HD-capable players even smaller), this is clearly not about profitability.

What matters in this war? Price of players? The Sony PS-3 (even though its sales are languishing)? Availability of movies?

Update (2007-08-30): Take a look at this article over at CNET. How much of a difference will this make? If many consumers are enticed by this and purchase it, will that drive the Blu-Ray only studios to provide HD-DVD content? Or, will consumers shun this inexpensive device because of the division in content?

Update (2007-08-31): Do you think the points raised in this article, if true, will make a significant difference?

Update (2007-09-07): I found this commentary illuminating ... and there was a small bit of data included, instead of only announcements that amount to posturing.

HD DVD vs. BluRay

I have blogged about this earlier, so I thought an update might be interesting. This article provided some evidence that seems favorable to the BluRay camp, though you can find contrary evidence as well.

Any bets on who will win?