In case you haven't been following the saga of this merger, you might want read this short item to bring you up to speed. Now, in an effort to break the deadlock, AT&T submitted this letter to the FCC in which they outline further commitments. The mainstream media (MSM) is reporting this as a win for "net neut*" advocates. Om Malik has a different view, though ...
I find it interesting to speculate on the cost-benefit computations that underly these further commitments. It is not possible to estimate these without more extensive research, as the letter reports targets and not the current state of affairs. If these costs can be estimated, then we will presumably be able to estimate the benefits that AT&T expects to obtain from the merger. This article provides a start at this analysis.
Update: The merger was approved on 29 December. Here is the FCC statement; you might also want to read the statements of the commissioners as well (here, here, here and here). This article provides a summary, as does this one. As these articles indicated, "net neut*" "purists" were not particularly happy. For examples of their concerns, see this, this, this, and this, among many others. On the other hand, this presents a more pragmatic analysis.
Technorati Tags:
AT&T, BellSouth, FCC, Network Neutrality,
29 December 2006
Vodafone in India
This story in BusinessWeek isn't hot off the press at this point. In fact, you might enjoy Om Malik's analysis as well. However, I find a couple of things that are particularly interesting at a meta level:
The article reports that Vodafone is pursuing this acquisition to find growth. Growth, ultimately, is growth in revenues, but it is also closely related to growth in subscribers because of weak network effects and scale/scope economies at work. Vodafone is by no means alone here. Having finally digested the expensive spectrum auctions of the late 1990s, they are finding growth relatively weak in their "home" markets (Europe) despite the rollout of 3G technologies such as HSDPA.
Update (2007/1/5): This article in BusinessWeek indicates that interest in India's carriers is very hot. Note that Verizon and Vodafone operate Verizon Wireless as a joint venture ...
Update (2007/1/10): After meeting with the Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath, this bid appears to be moving forward.
Update (2007/1/17): This analysis is insightful, building a case for the importance of this acquisition to Vodafone
Are expectations of 3G-related revenue growth modest enough to warrant an investment of this kind?
Is this a useful model for a developing country? I.e., to invest organically in its infrastructure to the point of "viral" growth and then to consider a partnership with a carrier based in and industrialized country to complete the rollout?
Technorati Tags:
Vodafone, Verizon, India, mobile, telecommunications, 3G
The article reports that Vodafone is pursuing this acquisition to find growth. Growth, ultimately, is growth in revenues, but it is also closely related to growth in subscribers because of weak network effects and scale/scope economies at work. Vodafone is by no means alone here. Having finally digested the expensive spectrum auctions of the late 1990s, they are finding growth relatively weak in their "home" markets (Europe) despite the rollout of 3G technologies such as HSDPA.
Update (2007/1/5): This article in BusinessWeek indicates that interest in India's carriers is very hot. Note that Verizon and Vodafone operate Verizon Wireless as a joint venture ...
Update (2007/1/10): After meeting with the Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath, this bid appears to be moving forward.
Update (2007/1/17): This analysis is insightful, building a case for the importance of this acquisition to Vodafone
Are expectations of 3G-related revenue growth modest enough to warrant an investment of this kind?
Is this a useful model for a developing country? I.e., to invest organically in its infrastructure to the point of "viral" growth and then to consider a partnership with a carrier based in and industrialized country to complete the rollout?
Technorati Tags:
Vodafone, Verizon, India, mobile, telecommunications, 3G
28 December 2006
WiMAX as a backhaul technology
There have been questions raised about the suitability of WiMAX as a competitor to WiFi or 3G because of the return path challenges (see this, for example). As I have noted earlier, Sprint Nextel plans to roll out a national WiMAX network as its 4G mobile technology. This article in BusinessWeek indicates that Sprint Nextel's real motivation is different ... to reduce the cost of backhaul in its wireless network. The article goes on to suggest that the main business target of a WiMAX network is not mobile customers, but fixed small businesses who need DS-1 level speeds.
Do you find this argument compelling? Do you think that WiMAX has a future as a mobile wireless technology?
Technorati Tags:
WiMax, Sprint, Nextel,
Do you find this argument compelling? Do you think that WiMAX has a future as a mobile wireless technology?
Technorati Tags:
WiMax, Sprint, Nextel,
The beginning of the end for VoIP?
This item in BusinessWeek is very interesting ...
If VoIP is truly the cheapest switching technology (as I argued in my 1999 TPRC paper), why does this observation obtain? Is this more an issue about business models than cost of technology?
Technorati Tags:
Skype, VoIP, Cost, Economics
Traditional telcos' services can, in fact, prove to be cheaper when calling countries like Israel, he says. My personal experience shows that using prepaid calling cards is still cheaper when dialing Russia, meanwhile.
If VoIP is truly the cheapest switching technology (as I argued in my 1999 TPRC paper), why does this observation obtain? Is this more an issue about business models than cost of technology?
Technorati Tags:
Skype, VoIP, Cost, Economics
Taiwan quake and telecommunications
This article is a nice case study of how natural events can affect telecommunications. Despite our best efforts to engineer robust networks, it seems that these systems remain relatively fragile in the face of natural events of this magnitude. This article in Forbes indicated that the initial impact of the quake was quite severe.
Update (2006/12/28): This article indicates that service is being restored, though it appears to be far from "normal".
Update (2006/12/29): There are a couple of additional articles that contain a bit more technical detail that came out today (12/29). See this and this. This article reports on restoration plans and hints at the business impact.
Update (2007/1/3): The restoration work is just beginning, even though the interest of the media has largely moved on. The article reports estimates of late January to early February for complete restoration. Meanwhile, you might find this thread interesting with respect to an unanticipated consequence of the break.
Update (2007/1/5) This article in BusinessWeek goes a bit further in discussing restoration efforts, the costs, and cable design strategies than the previous articles did.
Technorati Tags:
Telecommunications, earthquake, natural disaster, Taiwan
Update (2006/12/28): This article indicates that service is being restored, though it appears to be far from "normal".
Update (2006/12/29): There are a couple of additional articles that contain a bit more technical detail that came out today (12/29). See this and this. This article reports on restoration plans and hints at the business impact.
Update (2007/1/3): The restoration work is just beginning, even though the interest of the media has largely moved on. The article reports estimates of late January to early February for complete restoration. Meanwhile, you might find this thread interesting with respect to an unanticipated consequence of the break.
Update (2007/1/5) This article in BusinessWeek goes a bit further in discussing restoration efforts, the costs, and cable design strategies than the previous articles did.
Technorati Tags:
Telecommunications, earthquake, natural disaster, Taiwan
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